Jim Himes: A Politician at Heart

Members of Congress are single-minded seekers of reelection, this is the basis of Mayhew’s theory and an important truth to acknowledge especially as incumbents become more and more frequent. And love him though we may, Jim Himes of Connecticut’s 4th District is no exception to this rule. We can observe this particularly through the scope of three concepts identified by Mayhew: advertising(making yourself visible through interviews, ceremonies, speeches, etc), position taking(using speeches, roll call votes to take up a popular position more than to change policy), and credit claiming(pork barrel legislation, casework, particular policies) all of which representative Himes uses to a considerable degree to continue to seek reelection and which we will analyze in the annals of this blog.

Lord Representative Himes hangs out with the peasants, making a dish known as "pizza".

Advertising: Himes is using the VAWA anniversary in this example to advertise himself as a champion of women’s rights and to try to advertise his support for the values it embraces. Particularly because of the significant population of women within his district, as covered in blog post #3, he uses this statement to advertise this portion of his interests while additionally marking himself out as a bipartisan deal maker, hoping that the passing of the VAWA can transfer to other deals that are pertinent to modern times.

Another example of advertising that Jim Himes uses an interview on the Mueller report and using his support of the Mueller investigation, which many Americans are awaiting with support for a full report. He says that “everything about this has become political” and that “the way to end that of course is for the truth to be out there.” He uses his position on the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to set up interviews with news stations to talk about information that is largely readily available to increase his visibility as a member of Congress using such topics.

Position Taking: DACA is immensely popular with as many as 8 in 10 Americans supporting the program. Jim Himes is using a press release to take up a position of support for DACA though not particularly offering any long term policy specifics to solving a fundamentally broken immigration system that DACA is more or less a “band-aid” for. This is a great example of position taking because it offers support for a cause without particularly offering a change of policy.

Credit Claiming: A great example of credit claiming is Representative Himes’ insistence that he is an author and a “champion” of Dodd-Frank despite being in support of the effort that gutted it. He simultaneously holds the mainstream view of most Democrats by claiming to be a great supporter and one of the architects of Wall Street regulation and reform while simultaneously being an instrument of its fall to support the banking/investing industry within his own district and the source of a great many of his donations. Indeed the words on his website “Unfortunately, we are now forced to defend against multiple efforts undo all of the protections we have instituted” are extremely ironic in light of his voting patterns. Perhaps we might call him Schrödinger's politician, being both in support of and against Dodd Frank until we can see him vote. But this is a great example of credit claiming because he uses a particular policy to advance an important industry within his district while mostly going against party lines.

Connecticut’s 4th District: A Moderate Democrat Stronghold

Challengers in 2018: Harry Arora, a first generation American who came to the United States 25 years ago from India as a graduate school student. He worked as an investment manager and analyst for 20 years researching and investing in commodity and currency markets. He eventually started his own investing firm and led it through tumultuous times, before deciding to run in 2018.

Margin of victory in 2018: Jim Himes beat Harry Arora by a margin of 21.8% in 2018, indicating this as a very safe Democrat seat.

Primary election outlook: There were no primary challengers to Jim Himes. Jim Himes hasn’t had to face a primary election challenger since 2008.

General election outlook: Jim Himes has defeated his general election challengers for the last decade, almost always increasing his margin of victory as time goes on. To go further on, New England is also almost entirely made up of Democrat representatives and is culturally very liberal, Jim Himes is effectively ensconced in a safe space for him to be reelected for some time. Additionally, the strength of the financial and insurance industries here presumably makes it difficult for more progressive candidates to take root and compete.
Current prediction: Safe as safe can be in this political climate, he consistently wins double digit numbers in the general and doesn’t have regular primary challengers.
2016 vote: Jim Himes won 59.9%, 40.1%, winning by a margin of 19.8%. It wasn’t quite as strong of a year as 2018 but considering that the Republicans swept Congress in 2016 and that 2018 was a swing year for Democrats, a difference of 2% is not very surprising.
Campaign finance status: I went into this topic at some length with my previous two blog posts. One of Himes' biggest strengths as a campaigner has been his capability to attract big money donors, which is important in a district as spendy as Connecticut's 4th. Only 4% of his donations came from small individual donors, while 60% came from large individual donors. The remaining donations came mostly from Political Action Committees totalling around 34%. Large amounts of his campaign’s financing comes from insurance, securities, and investing industries which are also the largest employers within his district. Himes regularly raises well over two million dollars for each of his campaigns, reaching almost as high as four million during his 2008 election. Fundraising for this candidate is almost a non-issue, with a wide pool of big donors ready to flood his coffers.

Major issues: And while his large donors make fundraising a non-issue, it introduces a whole host of other problems. Being a pro-business Democrat, his support for bills rolling back Obama-era banking regulations has met with some opposition from his colleagues, Nancy Pelosi saying that one of the bills he co-sponsored “would take us back to the days when unchecked recklessness on Wall Street ignited an historic financial meltdown.” Additionally a bill he co-sponsored had a section of two crucial paragraphs which were copied word for word from Citigroup and other banking lobbyists. If Jim Himes were to be met in a primary, his challenger very well could make a strong case for Representative Himes being very deeply in the pocket of some corporate interests.

(The wonderful wonderful source for these memes can be found at https://www.facebook.com/625184804532608/photos/625197294531359/. I can only hope to one day have someone hate me as much as this person hates Jim Himes. 😍)

As always, good night, and good luck!

-Aaron

Get to Know Connecticut’s 4th District!

Principal Cities: Bridgeport, Norwalk, and Stamford.

Population: 737,616

Sex: The sex breakdown in this district was 48.58% Male, 51.42% Female. Though it’s not listed as required on the district profile, I thought this was an important demographic to cover given the difference in population (2.84% more women), as there are significant differences in voting habits among the opposite sexes. According to Pew Research, women are considerably more likely than men to be voting Democrat than Republican, giving Jim Himes the edge in this district in reference to this demographic trend.

Racial: The racial breakdown in Connecticut’s 4th district is as follows, 74.23% White, 12% Black, 5.03% Asian, 0.17% Native American, 0.012% Pacific Islander, 17.46% Hispanic. The amount of white people in the district is important to note, since white people are 10% more Republican than Democrat according to the national average. Since white individuals are the dominant race in Connecticut’s 4th district, the district has a possibility of trending more moderate, particularly on some financial issues which can be seen through some of Representative Himes voting patterns and through other demographic sections which will be covered later.

Religious: I unfortunately could not find any statistics on religion in Connecticut’s 4th district on the Census Bureau's website or through google search. :(

Median Household Income: The average household income in Connecticut’s 4th district was $94,547 as of 2017 as compared to the US average household income of $61,372, making it considerably more wealthy than the average American household. This is one of the portions of the district that would lend it to possible Republican sympathies. Pew voter breakdowns show that Americans with a household income of over $75,000 were 4% more Republican than Democrat. This sympathy shows through as this district was the last Republican stronghold to fall in Connecticut, Himes having to beat 10 term Republican incumbent Christopher Shays in 2008. Himes has contended with this higher income demographic by being more moderate in reference to financial issues, pandering to some of the districts largest employers by doing so.

Median Age: The median age of individuals within Connecticut’s 4th district was 40 years old, marking them solidly as largely being made up of Gen X. According to Pew Research, Gen X identifies as 5% more Democrat, putting this district as a solid Democrat advantage in this regard.

Urban vs. Rural: The Urban/Rural breakdown in the 4th was 95.9% urban 4.1% rural. This gives Democrats ostensibly a huge leg up. Pew Research trends show that people living in urban areas are two times more likely to vote Democrat than Republican. This particularly shined true in Jim Himes first election when he won overall by sweeping the three largest cities within the district, Bridgeport, Norwalk and Stamford, winning as much as 80 percent of the vote in Bridgeport itself in 2008.

Major Industries: Finance and insurance, which has largest percentage of employed people in the district at 43,426 individuals. Not only are these industries the largest employers within his district but they also are Jim Himes’ most significant donors, the Representative attracting around $442k in donations from securities, investment, and insurance industries.

Party Affiliation:

Democratic:

Active: 141,355

Inactive: 9,427

Total: 150,782

Percentage: 36.17%
Republican:

Active: 98,663

Inactive: 5,106

Total: 103,769

Percentage: 24.89%
Minor Parties:

Active: 3,737

Inactive: 312

Total: 4,049

Percentage: 0.97%
Unaffiliated:

Active: 146,218

Inactive: 12,043

Total:158,261

Percentage: 37.97%

And lastly, the outright breakdown in party affiliation shows a clear Democrat advantage, with the Dems bringing in 42,692 more affiliates than Republicans. This also comes through in the 2016 Presidential election in which Clinton won 60% to Trump’s 37% of the vote.

It’s been a pleasure ladies and gentlemen to give everyone a new point of view as we continue to dig into the nitty and gritty of Connecticut’s 4th District and Representative Himes.

As always, good night, and good luck!

-Aaron

Jim Himes: The Third Way

About Jim: (https://www.thirdway.org/about/co-chairs/rep-jim-himes)

Born: July 5th, 1966 in Lima Peru to American parents, he spent his early childhood in Peru and Colombia before moving to New Jersey.

Lives: Himes lives in the Cos Cob section of Greenwich in Connecticut.

Education: Graduated Harvard University with a Bachelor of Arts, studied for a degree in Latin American studies as a Rhodes scholar at St Edmund Hall, Oxford and graduated with a Master of Philosophy.

Jobs: Jim Himes got his start at Goldman Sachs as a banker. He began this portion of his career in Latin America before going to work in New York, eventually being promoted to vice president of the company. This changed in 2003 when he went on to work for the Enterprise Foundation, a nonprofit dedicated to addressing the unique challenges of urban poverty, being eventually named vice president in 2007. Jim’s time at Enterprise gave him some unique insight into the economic solutions to urban poverty, being eventually inspired to run for Congress after some time as a Commissioner of the Greenwich Housing Authority.

Religious Affiliation: Presbyterian

Family: On October 15, 1994, he married Mary Linley Scott. Mary was an assistant designer at Dorf Associates, a retail design firm in New York. She graduated from McGill University and from the Parsons School of Design. Jim also has two daughters, Emma and Linley. Emma currently attends the University of Pennsylvania.

Tenure as Congressman: 2009-Present

Himes ran in 2008 facing 10 term incumbent Republican Chris Shays in Connecticut's 4th Congressional District. Himes won 51 to 47 percent, astoundingly winning despite losing 14 of the 17 towns within the district to Shays. However, Himes carried in the three of the districts largest cities, Bridgeport, Norwalk and Stamford, winning as much as 80 percent of the vote in Bridgeport itself, which lent him his eventual victory.

From the 2008 election onwards Himes has carried his district’s reelections with relative ease, winning his 2010 election 53.1 to 46.9 percent, his 2012 election 60 to 40 percent, his 2014 campaign 53.8 to 46.2 percent, his 2016 campaign 59.9 to 40.1 percent, and his most recent campaign in 2018 60.9 to 39.1 percent. )(https://ballotpedia.org/Jim_Himes)

One of Himes' biggest strengths as a campaigner has been his capability to attract big money donors, which is important in a district as spendy as Connecticut's 4th. Only 4% of his donations came from small individual donors, while 60% came from large individual donors. The remaining donations came mostly from Political Action Committees totalling around 34%. (https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00029070&cycle=2010) Himes has regularly raised well over two million dollars for each of his campaigns, reaching almost as high as four million during his 2008 election.

Leadership: Jim Himes currently serves as a member of the House Committee on Financial Services, serves as the ranking member of the NSA and Cybersecurity Subcommittee of the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence, and is Chair of the New Democrat Coalition.

Voting Record:  Jim Himes voting record has been relatively consistent, Himes was ranked as a "moderate Democratic follower" as of July 2014 based on an analysis of bill sponsorship by GovTrack (https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/james_himes/412282). Himes voted with the Democratic Party 91.5 percent of the time, which ranked 141st among the 204 House Democratic members as of July 2014. As chair of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of business-centric Democrats though, he has had some significant partings with some of his more progressive colleagues. For example, he voted with house republicans to fulfill Trump's campaign promise to roll back Obama era protections put in place to prevent another financial meltdown. He also voted for the Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief and Consumer Protection Act, which freed banks with less than $250 billion in assets from stricter federal oversight. Himes additionally co-sponsored H.R. 992 which rolled back provisions in section 716 of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. Himes’ support of Banking, Securities & Investment and Insurance industries has been the source of criticism from some of his colleagues, who believes he is merely pandering to some of his largest donors. (https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/summary?cid=N00029070)